College football bowl projections 2026
Every 2026 bowl game projected by our model, from each team's projected record and last season's bowl tie-ins.
Projected College Football Playoff field
- Indiana (6-1), 75% playoff odds
- Ohio State (6-1), 74% playoff odds
- Alabama (5-2), 73% playoff odds
- Miami (6-0), 70% playoff odds
- BYU (6-0), 66% playoff odds
- Notre Dame (6-1), 64% playoff odds
- Ole Miss (5-1), 60% playoff odds
- Georgia (6-1), 60% playoff odds
- Texas (4-2), 57% playoff odds
- LSU (5-2), 44% playoff odds
- Boise State (5-1), 41% playoff odds
- Oregon (4-2), 41% playoff odds
Projected bowl matchups
- ReliaQuest Bowl: Tennessee (9-3) vs. UCLA (10-2)
- Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: Kentucky (9-3) vs. Iowa (9-3)
- Pop-Tarts Bowl: Texas Tech (11-1) vs. Wake Forest (10-2)
- Valero Alamo Bowl: Utah (10-2) vs. USC (8-4)
- Trust & Will Holiday Bowl: SMU (9-3) vs. Houston (9-3)
- Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl: Northwestern (8-4) vs. Missouri (8-4)
- TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Florida (8-4) vs. Pittsburgh (8-4)
- SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona (8-4) vs. Nebraska (8-4)
- Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Louisville (7-5) vs. Kansas State (7-5)
- Kinder's Texas Bowl: Oklahoma State (7-5) vs. Auburn (7-5)
- Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Virginia Tech (7-5) vs. Wisconsin (8-4)
- Duke's Mayo Bowl: Mississippi State (7-5) vs. Clemson (7-5)
- Bucked Up LA Bowl: Penn State (7-5) vs. New Mexico (10-2)
- Bush's Boca Raton Bowl: North Carolina (7-5) vs. Toledo (9-3)
- Go Bowling Military Bowl: UTSA (9-3) vs. Duke (7-5)
- AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Baylor (6-6) vs. North Texas (9-3)
- Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Virginia (7-5) vs. South Florida (8-4)
- Rate Bowl: Michigan (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
- GameAbove Sports Bowl: Washington (6-6) vs. Western Michigan (9-3)
- Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl: UNLV (7-5) vs. NC State (6-6)
- StaffDNA Cure Bowl: Memphis (8-4) vs. James Madison (11-1)
- Isleta New Mexico Bowl: San José State (6-7) vs. Army (8-4)
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Wyoming (6-6) vs. Oregon State (7-4)
- Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl: Ohio (9-3) vs. UConn (6-6)
- Myrtle Beach Bowl: Buffalo (7-5) vs. Liberty (10-2)
- Wasabi Fenway Bowl: Tulsa (7-5) vs. Fresno State (6-5)
- Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl: East Carolina (6-6) vs. Miami (OH) (7-5)
- SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Tulane (6-6) vs. Jacksonville State (8-4)
- New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana (9-3) vs. Florida International (7-5)
- IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl: Massachusetts (6-6) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-4)
- Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: TCU (6-6) vs. Georgia State (8-4)
- Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: South Alabama (7-5) vs. Florida Atlantic (6-6)
- Xbox Bowl: App State (7-5) vs. Texas A&M (6-6)
- JLab Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern (6-6) vs. Arkansas State (6-6)
- 68 Ventures Bowl: Iowa State (6-6) vs. Troy (6-6)
On the bowl bubble
- South Carolina: 50% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-6
- Marshall: 51% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-6
- Troy: 52% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-6
- Wyoming: 55% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-6
- Eastern Michigan: 45% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 5-7
- Minnesota: 41% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 5-7
- Western Kentucky: 41% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 5-7
- UAB: 59% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-6
- Washington: 59% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-6
- Central Michigan: 61% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-6
- Cincinnati: 61% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-6
- Texas State: 62% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-5
- Arkansas State: 62% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-6
- Oklahoma: 63% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-6
- Arizona State: 37% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 5-7
- Georgia Southern: 63% chance to reach 6 wins, projected 6-6